E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Detailed Review for Tuesday March 23, 2021

Today’s E-Mini S&P 500 futures (CME: ES, MES) detailed review.

Charts

Notes

  • Based on how active buyers were into the test of initial key reisstance, I expected a test of yday's VPOC at the high of the zone. Sellers were active there for push down to below the IBL on weakening selling. As sellers started to fail to hold below the IBL and given initial key resistance is a high volume node which can act asa magnet, I decided to scale. I exited the rest of the trade near the high of the zone.
  • I wasn't seeing sustained momentum nor strong buying on the push above initial key resistance and given the high volume area of initial key resistance in addiiton to the quick move up from the IBL, I was expecting balance.
  • As price chopped around initial key resistance and ultimately tested the IBL, I was seeing a weakness in the TICK (holding mostly below 0) as well as weak buying in the ES and I shorted around the low of intiial key resistance with the day's midpoint as confluence. Price could have continued to chop and I could have been stopped out, but I took that risk based on what I was seeing.
  • I exited that short at initial key support and was watching order-flow for an entry in the zone to go long as I expected longs to defend the zone for further upside. I saw the pace slowing down midway through the zone and I executed a long. Buyers took price up, but not for long until sellers slammed the bid and I exited for small loss near the back fo the zone-ish.
  • I was then looking for a pull-back on a break below initial key support for a test of the 3888s, but that did not materialize and it was the end of the day, so anything could happen, so I called it a day.

Today was not easy by any means. The long flip of initial key resistance was a trap and you had to be on the lookout for weakness while the market was balancing. The ES has a personality you come to learn with screen time.