E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Pre-Market Breakdown for Wednesday March 31, 2021

Today’s E-Mini S&P 500 futures (CME: ES, MES) pre-market analysis.

Charts

Zones

Zones file

Trade ideas I am looking for today (not investment advice)

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There is a mixed bag of buying/selling pressure today with both sides potentially able to trigger breakout/breakdown. I don't want to fade a strong move in either direction except at the 3906s/3888s. My general idea right now is that the market is too long and initial key resistance is key to that idea coming into the open. I expect a swift move off here after some initial balance if that idea is correct. I will also be watching the 3973s good resistance for buying to dry up in the upper part of the zone.

  • Long initial key support if not off initial key resistance first. Watching for strong buying off this zone. Don't fade strong selling into this zone.
  • Higher probability: Short initial key resistance first test on weak buying into the zone. Will be expecting sell off down tot he 3927s zone and possibly below. Shallow test or deep test depends on real-time strength of buyers.
  • Higher probability and likely to be a deep test: Short the 3973s on buying drying up into the zone. I do expect a decent bounce off this area, but if the market is in breakout mode, then this idea is invalidated. Watch for the TICK to be sustained above 0 as a partial clue that the ES is in breakout mode.
  • Short flip of initial key support. If buyers pull-back into the zone and are unable to push above intraday resistance (midpoint, etc.), then there is potential for liquidation break below the 3927s.
  • Higher probability and likely to be a deep test: Long the 3906s and 3888s zones. Don't want to see these zones stuck to. Expecting swift rejection. May test a couple times if there is a lot of selling pressure.